미국 times 보도"현재 한국상황 6.25직전과 대단히 흡사"

[시사정보]타임지에 실린 한반도 위기상황

[시사정보]타임지에 실린 한반도 위기상황

몇 주전 타임지 표지모델로 김정일이 등장했습니다.

요즘 우리나라 상황을 보면 대단히 위험한 상황으로 가고 있음을 알 수 있습니다. 이 기사를 통해 미국에서 우리나라를 바라보는 시각을 읽을 수 있고 그것은 우리에게 심각한 안보공백이 생기고 있음을 시사해주고 있습니다.

현명한 대처가 필요한 상황입니다. 북한은 이미 8기의 핵무기를 갖고 있으며, 이는 심각한 전쟁 위험 요소가 되고 있습니다.

요즘 외국인들 투자가 줄었고 멕시코등지로 빠져나간다고 합니다. 이를 보면 외국에서 우리나를 바라보는 시각이 어떠한지를 알 수 있습니다.

북한은 최근 한미동맹이 뒤틀리고 미국의 군사전략이 변화함에 따라 유화적 제스쳐를 쓰고있다.

이는 625 발발 전 상황과 대단히 흡사하다. 늘 공격전에 방심을 유도하는 것이 북한의 전략이다. 

Kim Jong Il, saying that "I personally felt that North Korea was interested in moving forward in a positive way." (See following story.) Beijing said last week that it did not share Washington's assessment of the north's nuclear programs. These changes in attitude toward Pyongyang are being played out against the backdrop of a revised American military posture on the peninsula and strains in the U.S.-South Korea alliance. Echoing the famous complaint about Washington's China policy in the late 1940s, South Korean conservatives are already starting to ask: "Who lost the U.S.?"

Hovering above all this, doing one of the great geopolitical levitation acts of our time, is Kim Jong Il. The world has consistently underestimated North Korea's "Dear Leader." Of his potential to cause a bloody war on the peninsula there is little doubt, even if such a war concluded, as it almost certainly would, with the collapse of his own regime. Kim has vast arsenals of biological and chemical weapons, along with the rocket launchers and missiles needed to lob them over the DMZ, onto South Korean cities and even as far as Japan. The North is trumpeting its ability to make nuclear bombs; according to U.S. intelligence,

북한의 탱크부대와 장갑차를 막을 수 있는 것은

오직 미 2사단의 아파치 헬기부대다. 이번에 감축되는 부대가 바로 이 부대다

Then hordes of North Korean infantry and Kim's giant fleet of tanks and armored personnel carriers would be sent, headed for Seoul and other strategic targets. The U.S. 2nd Infantry Division near the DMZ flies Apache attack helicopters capable of stopping the tanks?but that's the unit the Pentagon plans to downsize and move south.

The U.S. insists that even if the artillery division is moved, the defense of South Korea will not be compromised, and Washington has promised an $11 billion upgrade of the country's defenses, including new Patriot antimissile systems. But South Korean experts are worried that North Korean artillery will have freer rein until the South can plug the hole with its own antiartillery batteries. "If they move out the artillery and the helicopters," warns Kim Tae Woo, a military analyst at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, "we will have serious problems." He points out that equipment and boots on the ground are concrete shields against the North. "

미국은 감군대신 장비를 현대화 시킨다고 하지만 더 중요한 것은 한미동맹관계에 금이 가기 시작했다는 것이다.

그리고, 장비 업글이 한두해동안 되는 게 아니다.

Yes, capability is more important than the sheer number of soldiers," Kim Tae Woo says. "But the health of the alliance is more important than both those things combined."

The alliance, however, looks far from healthy. Foreign Minister Ban's assessment of the North Korean nuclear threat is less dramatic than the official U.S. position: that Pyongyang is probably already a nuclear power. "We are not quite sure whether they are in possession of nuclear weapons," Ban told TIME, adding that South Korea nonetheless took the issue seriously. (China's Deputy Foreign Minister last week also said he doubted the American assertion that Kim was running a covert uranium-enrichment program on top of making weapons from plutonium.)

전 주한미대사였던 제임스 릴리는 "만약 북한이 공격한다면 박살날것이다." 김정일은 전쟁에 미쳐있고, 지금 이순간 그의 생존능력은 그를 임기응변의 달인으로 만들었다.